The shift of power from the West to the East is currently underway. Many attribute this change to the rise of China, who stands as a potential rival to US hegemony. But China alone cannot cause a change in the world order. China needs allies to help foster this transference in the global center of power.
The recent Iranian nuclear deal not only prevented war with Iran, but also allowed Iran to shed itself of its pariah status. The economic integration of Iran back into the world community holds much promise for the country. Aside from Iran ranking first in the world’s reserve of natural gas and third in oil reserves[1], its isolation in the last few decades have helped it develop its domestic capabilities in an array of industries. With Iran reentering the world community, its power and influence, especially in the Middle East, will grow. With the rise of China and the recent resurgence of Russia, an influential and reliable partner will be needed in the Middle East for these two nations.
WHAT IS IT?
The Russian and Iranian relationship began to flourish after the fall of the USSR especially with Russian aid and expertise in developing Iran’s nuclear program. Similarly, the Sino-Iranian relationship dates back to the Iran-Iraq War, where China was one of the few countries that sold Iran weapons. In the past, both Russia and China have tried to walk a fine line in their dealings with Iran in order not to upset nor get too much attention from the US. With Iran on the path to becoming a full member of the international community once again, Russia and China can become more overt in their dealings with Iran.
China recently stated that it wants to deepen military ties with Iran[2]. Aside from its close ties, Iran also represents a vital part of the China’s energy security calculus since it is the largest purchaser of Iranian oil[3]. Thus stability in Iran represents a continuous stream of energy to thirsty Chinese markets.
Russia’s recent foray into Syria demonstrates the ever growing closer ties between Iran and Russia. After mustering Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guard, Iran managed to convince Russia to employ its airpower to help ensure the survival of the Assad regime. Even if Assad is not able to wrest total control of Syria from the opposition, both Iran and Russia want to ensure that a secure enclave is created for any potential post- conflict resolution. Earlier this year, Russia signed a “long term and multifaceted” military cooperation agreement with Iran[4]. While the US has managed to be influential in the Sunni world, Russia has been balancing that by aligning herself with the rising Shiite powerhouse in the Middle East.
Aside from their common ally Iran, China and Russia have been cozying up to each other in the last decade or so[5]. These former rival nations have signaled a shift to move closer together. This goes from developing commercial relations[6] to deeper military links such as the recent joint war games in the Pacific Ocean[7]. The countries appear to becoming even closer by undertaking two major projects jointly; the Asian Infrastructure Investment bank[8] and the creation of the Silk Road Economic Belt[9]. As the world continues to undergo this epochal transition, Russia and China see their partnership as a necessity to help navigate through the turbulent times ahead.
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
China alone will not be able to challenge the US preponderance of power. Yet with a strategic alliance with Russia and Iran, China can create the necessary balance of power to counter US hegemony. As Iran becomes a full-fledged member of the international community once again, the Triad will leverage their natural resources as well as its economic and military capabilities to influence global affairs more decisively. The Triad will no longer be conscious of upsetting the US by its actions but rather carry out its foreign policy interests without much fear of backlash.
The recent military intervention in Syria by Russia displayed this new brazen sense of boldness that the Triad will continue to flaunt. The Russo-Iranian military coalition in Syria has been viewed by many as a direct challenge to the US, who is partaking in its own military operations to support local rebels. Iran has directly challenged the US’s closest Arab ally in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia by intervening in Syria, supporting Shiite rebels in Yemen, calling for more global recognition of the uprisings in Bahrain and even supporting the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
Despite regional and global opposition, China has been constructing artificial islands in the South China Sea to further enhance her claims. Recently, China built two lighthouses in the disputed region in the face of vocal US opposition[10]. The light house will require recognition from ships that pass on through, which will constitute a de facto acknowledgment of Chinese authority. These types of audacious actions in the face of US oppositions were very uncommon a decade or so ago.
As Iran begins to take its proper place on the world stage, the emergence of the Triad alliance will become more open to see in their activities together. If in any way the actions of others potentially impede upon the interests of any of these three countries, the Triad can potentially retaliate militarily, economically, or even via a veto vote in the UN. As the world enters a new phase, US and Western actions will begin to receive more push back than before by the Triad.
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[1] http://www.gecf.org/gecfmembers/iran
[2] http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/15/us-china-iran-idUSKCN0S907Q20151015
[3] http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/15/us-china-iran-idUSKCN0S907Q20151015
[4] http://thediplomat.com/2015/01/russia-and-iran-sign-military-cooperation-agreement/
[5] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/artyom-lukin/russia-china-us_b_8105578.html
[6] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-11-10/russia-china-add-to-400-billion-gas-deal-with-accord
[7] http://www.ibtimes.com/russia-china-alliance-war-practice-japan-sea-next-week-tensions-rise-between-nato-us-2057319
[8] http://www.ibtimes.com/russia-china-alliance-war-practice-japan-sea-next-week-tensions-rise-between-nato-us-2057319
[9] http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/10/china-russia-sco-ufa-summit-putin-xi-jinping-eurasian-union-silk-road/
[10] http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/17/us-china-southchinasea-idUSKCN0SB00Z20151017
