Taliban’s new enemy
The status of the new Taliban leader Mullah Mansour appears to be uncertain after reports indicate that he might have been killed attending a meeting. There is speculation that ISIS may have been behind the attack. If confirmed, it would be a serious setback for the Taliban insurgency, who are still reeling from the death of their founder Mullah Omar. The death of Mullah Omar and the subsequent selection of Mullah Mansour led to an internal squabble amongst the Taliban. The internal dissent became off-putting to some members who consequently splintered and pledged allegiance to ISIS. Despite ISIS’ main base of operations being in Syria and Iraq, Afghanistan (referred to as Khorasan by ISIS) plays an important part in the prophetic apocalyptic vision of the group. ISIS is seeking any opportunities to solidify its existing position in Afghanistan.
The ISIS vision
ISIS thrives on anarchy. Whenever a nation in the Middle East undergoes strife, ISIS steps in. This has been witnessed in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Somalia, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. One aspect that distinctly differentiates ISIS from other terrorist groups and insurgencies is its extreme doomsday fascination. They use the allure of the afterlife to sell their cause to recruits. They urge followers to come and join so they can be the catalysts that usher in Judgement Day. One area in particular that has been discussed in the media is Dabiq, a town in northern Syria. The prophecy states that the Day of Judgement will come after the Muslims defeat “Rome” (a term used to refer to the West) in Dabiq. The prophecy goes on to state that the Muslims will then conquer Constantinople (present-day Istanbul). Even though Constantinople (Istanbul) is currently a Muslim city thus rendering the prophecy inapplicable, it does not appear to deter ISIS from ratcheting up the importance of this prophecy. But a larger factor that people such as Graeme Wood and other notable analyst of the ISIS prophecy are missing is the importance of Afghanistan to its doomsday prophecy.
[via Rai News]
Certain Islamic eschatology states that the return of the Messiah, Jesus Christ, known as the prophet Isa, will herald the ‘end-times’. However, before this can happen, it is believed that a front-runner to Jesus will appear to help fight the ‘Antichrist’. This person is referred to as the Mahdi (“the guided one”). Although never explicitly referred to in the Koran, the Mahdi is discussed in Hadiths. This makes ISIS’ mission in Afghanistan all the more clear. The writings state that the Mahdi will rise from Khorasan under the ‘Black Flags’. From there he will march towards the Middle East and liberate it, upon which time the Messiah will join him. These views and events differ depending on the sect and school of thought within Islam. However, they provide a theological background to ISIS’ strategic aims.
Different strokes
While everyone is fixated on Dabiq, the prominence of Afghanistan to ISIS’ apocalyptic vision is understated or barely understood. Currently, Afghanistan is facing a strong and active insurgency led by the Taliban, who by all intents and purposes despise ISIS. Growing dissatisfaction with Mullah Omar’s successor has led many Taliban supporters to defect to ISIS. However, the Taliban is in little danger of being overtaken. They retain numerical superiority, and the strategic advantage of being the very face of the Afghan insurgency. The Afghan Taliban movement is a nationalistic organisation, whose vision is confined within the borders of Afghanistan. Conversely, groups such as ISIS or Al Qaeda are fixated on global jihad. The Taliban movement is largely comprised of Afghan natives dissatisfied with the treatment of their government and officials. Despite appearing similar to many in the West, the Taliban and ISIS adhere to different Islamic schools of thoughts. The Taliban adhere to the Deobandi interpretation, common in South Asia, whereas ISIS follow the Salafist tradition originating from Saudi Arabia. In their current state, ISIS’ presence in Afghanistan appears to be inconsequential and more fluid than anything of substance.
Black flag over Khorasan
While ISIS current presence in Afghanistan is almost a minor and unimportant event, the prophetic significance of ensuring the black flag of ISIS rises over Khorasan is an organisational imperative. While a few who have begun to scratch the surface of ISIS’ eschatology continue to see Dabiq as decisive, they are missing the real location; Khorasan. As rumours continue about the status of the Taliban leader, ISIS’ presence in Afghanistan must be continuously monitored. Undoubtedly, they will take the first opportunity to expand and solidify their holding in the region. Dabiq plays but a minor role in the eschatology of the terror group. Khorasan is the real prize that ISIS seeks to usher the return of the Messiah, and with it, propel the world into the Apocalypse.
