Ukraine’s continuing struggle
Since 2014, Ukraine has been the grips of conflict. Struggling with a separatist insurgency in the east of the country and a territorial loss, the eastern European nation has been in a state of turmoil. Central to the political crisis which began the unrest was Ukraine’s relationship with the European Union. In essence, Ukraine’s geopolitical diplomatic loyalties are the defining struggle of Ukraine’s existence. Continuing European Union expansion not only created economic opportunities for Ukraine, but also provided a possibility for the state to become increasingly involved in the project. The Ukraine-European Union Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU seemed the first step towards the inevitable – and the refusal of former president Yanukovych to sign the deal tipped the country into turmoil.
Shifting perspectives
Russian involvement in Ukraine has been ongoing since the onset of the crisis. The annexation of Crimea, and the emergence of resolutely Russian-allied armed insurrections in Eastern Ukraine, seemed to confirm those suspicions. However, the ongoing wars in Iraq and Syria have diverted all attention.
A conflict with multiple international actors and competing international coalitions is being waged in the Middle East. The involvement of Russia has dramatically shifted the balance of the conflict, and the narrative regarding Russia’s international affairs. Dispatching ground troops, war planes, and naval forces to Syria, Russia has fully embedded itself in the conflict, determined to ensure the continuing reign of its ally President Assad.
A helping hand
The international pressure to end the unrest in Ukraine has waned significantly over the past year. The mounting threat from ISIS, the continuing oppression of President Assad, and the refugee crisis caused by these issues have dominated the frame. But amongst the European Union, one country is willing to firmly hold out its hand to Ukraine. In a bid to foster closer ties and facilitate change, the Polish government has made the decision to lend economic support to Ukraine. A credit line equivalent to over $1 billion has been extended from the National Bank of Poland to Ukraine in order to boost trade between the two countries.
More to come?
This economic gesture from Poland, though relatively little financially, may have wider diplomatic implications. President Poroshenko of Ukraine has turned resolutely to face the West. Rejecting any diplomacy with Russia until the fate of Crimea is resolved to Ukraine’s satisfaction, Poroshenko’s government has made multiple moves away from the Kremlin. Indulging in increased trade with Poland, a member of the European Union, may simply be the first step. There are calls within Poland’s government for Ukraine to be present at the next meeting of NATO. Ukraine’s diplomatic fate may one day soon be decided.
